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Spring 2026

Artificial Intelligence | Deterrence | Nuclear Strategy | Podcast | Psychology of War | Technology

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Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI

Artificial Intelligence | Deterrence | Nuclear Strategy | Podcast | Psychology of War | Technology April 15, 2026

Rose McDermott, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Ryan Vest

Rose McDermott explains how common judgment biases can undermine nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, especially under time pressure and with emerging technologies like AI, using Kahneman’s Type 1 (fast, intuitive) and Type 2 (slow, analytic) thinking as a framework. We discuss four key biases—overconfidence, the planning fallacy, the illusion of validity, and the prominence effect—and how personalist and authoritarian leadership can heighten risk by weakening institutional constraints and privileging loyalty over competence.

The Roundtable essay discussed is “The Influence of Psychological Factors in the Search for Strategic Stability.”

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Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest

Producer: Jordan Morning

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