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Preparing the Cyber Battlefield: Assessing a Novel Escalation Risk in a Sino-American Crisis

Preparing the Cyber Battlefield: Assessing a Novel Escalation Risk in a Sino-American Crisis

Do cyber capabilities create novel risks of a future political crisis between the United States and China escalating into a conflict? This article outlines one potential pathway for interstate crises to escalate: the use of force in response to adversary…

The Escalation Inversion and Other Oddities of Situational Cyber Stability

The Escalation Inversion and Other Oddities of Situational Cyber Stability

As the United States shifts to a new military strategy of defending forward against adversaries in cyberspace, research into the role of cyber capabilities in crisis stability is especially relevant. This paper introduces the concept of situational cyber…

The Simulation of Scandal: Hack-and-Leak Operations, the Gulf States, and U.S. Politics

The Simulation of Scandal: Hack-and-Leak Operations, the Gulf States, and U.S. Politics

Four hack-and-leak operations in U.S. politics between 2016 and 2019, publicly attributed to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, should be seen as the “simulation of scandal" — deliberate attempts to direct moral judgement against…

Taming the Lawless Void: Tracking the Evolution of International Law Rules for Cyberspace

Taming the Lawless Void: Tracking the Evolution of International Law Rules for Cyberspace

The myth that cyberspace is a legal Wild West has been roundly rejected by states and scholars. As cyberspace norms evolve, states will advocate interpretations of existing international law rules that advance their national interests. In this regard, states…

The Post-INF European Missile Balance: Thinking About NATO’s Deterrence Strategy

The Post-INF European Missile Balance: Thinking About NATO’s Deterrence Strategy

The demise of the INF Treaty in 2019 raises questions about the future of deterrence in Europe. For more than a decade, Russia has sought to leverage the potential of precision-strike technologies to strengthen its missile arsenal, having developed systems…

Desperate Measures: The Effects of Economic Isolation on Warring Powers

Desperate Measures: The Effects of Economic Isolation on Warring Powers

Scholars and strategists have long debated whether cutting off an opponent’s trade is an effective strategy in war. In this debate, success or failure has usually been judged based on whether the state subjected to economic isolation surrenders without being…

Recentering the United States in the Historiography of American Foreign Relations

Recentering the United States in the Historiography of American Foreign Relations

In the last three decades, historians of the “U.S. in the World” have taken two methodological turns — the international and transnational turns — that have implicitly decentered the United States from the historiography of U.S. foreign relations.…

Allies and Artificial Intelligence: Obstacles to Operations and Decision-Making

Allies and Artificial Intelligence: Obstacles to Operations and Decision-Making

Artificial intelligence (AI) promises to increase military efficiency, but also poses unique challenges to multinational military operations and decision-making that scholars and policymakers have yet to explore. The data- and resource-intensive nature of AI…

Forming the Grand Strategist According to Shakespeare

Forming the Grand Strategist According to Shakespeare

Shakespeare, like Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, locates the crux of strategic genius in the analysis of character, both of individuals and of societies. A key ingredient in strategic education, therefore, should be the close study of human character — not least…

The Ethics of Acquiring Disruptive Military Technologies

The Ethics of Acquiring Disruptive Military Technologies

Technological innovation is proceeding at a rapid pace and is having a dramatic effect on warfare. Not only do technologies such as artificial intelligence, human enhancement, and cyber reduce risk to soldiers and civilians alike, they also expand the kinds of…

Whither the “City Upon a Hill”? Donald Trump, America First, and American Exceptionalism

Whither the “City Upon a Hill”? Donald Trump, America First, and American Exceptionalism

In order to understand Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, we must examine the master narrative that underpins it. Trump breaks with all modern presidents not just because he challenges the postwar “liberal international order,” but because he…

The Collapse Narrative: The United States, Mohammed Mossadegh, and the Coup Decision of 1953

The Collapse Narrative: The United States, Mohammed Mossadegh, and the Coup Decision of 1953

On Aug. 19, 1953, elements inside Iran organized and funded by the Central Intelligence Agency and British intelligence services carried out a coup d’état that overthrew the government of Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh. Historians have yet to reach a…