Great Power Competition
Taiwan and North Korea as Linked Flashpoints in US-China Relations
Is China's North Korea policy driven solely by stability on the Korean Peninsula, or is it deeply tied to Washington's stance on Taiwan? Hosts Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest sit down with Dr. Shuxian Luo to examine the strategic logic connecting two of…
Trapped by the Tradition: Reading Thucydides on Strategy and Policy
Thucydides’ history of the Peloponnesian War has gained new prominence as the United States engages in great-power competition with China, as that emerging geopolitical competition is often explained through parallels with the ancient rivalry between Athens…
A Plum for a Peach? Issue Linkage, Taiwan, and China’s Policy toward North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program
This article offers a novel explanation for the variation in China’s policy toward North Korea’s nuclear program. It argues that Beijing’s willingness to constrain Pyongyang is shaped by the perceived level of US assurance regarding Taiwan. Specifically,…
China’s Bid for Space Supremacy in the Middle East
Lawrence Rubin, Lincoln Hines, and Dayana Alagirova examine China's space diplomacy across the Middle East and North Africa by analyzing how regional states—specifically Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran—utilize space partnerships with Beijing to…
Choosing Orbits: China’s Space Diplomacy in the Middle East
China’s engagement with Africa, Asia, and the Middle East has drawn significant attention from the international community and American policymakers. One understudied dimension of this engagement is China’s expanding space diplomacy in the Middle East.…
25 Years of the US-China Commission: Taiwan, Tech Competition, and Over-the-Horizon Risks
Twenty-five years after its creation, how does the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission evaluate the evolving threat landscape? TNSR Editor-in-Chief Sheena Chestnut Greitens hosts Randall Schriver (Chairman of the Board, Institute for Indo-Pacific…
US Military Primacy and Alliance Resilience
In 1956, the Suez Crisis revealed the limits of British power. Could a similar event hollow out the US alliance system today? Bence Nemeth applies his "five factor theory of defense cooperation" to answer this critical question.
Conventional Options Theory in the New Nuclear Era
Tyler Bowen from the US Naval War College joins us to discuss the logic of conventional coercion in nuclear crises. As the US faces nuclear-armed adversaries like Russia and China, understanding how to "thread the needle" between defense and escalation is…
A New World Order? Careful What You Wish For
This paper examines the persistent attractions of the idea of a world order, and whether one may be said to exist today. It argues that we are now in a world adrift or, at best, between orders. It suggests that this may mark a return to the historical norm and…
How a US “Suez Moment” Could Hollow the US Alliance System
This article contends that while the United States still fields potent military capabilities, the narrowing military balance with China means that a future Indo-Pacific clash in which Beijing gains a regional edge is no longer implausible. Using the 1956…
Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending in August 2021, created favorable conditions for Russia to reassert itself as a regional hegemon in broader Central Asia. Historically, as great powers retrench from a territory, the resulting void can be filled…
Escalation Management in Ukraine: “Learning by Doing” in Response to the “Threat that Leaves Something to Chance”
The article analyses a process of escalation management over time between nuclear states under conditions of radical uncertainty. After Russia invaded Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin manipulated uncertainty to manage escalation and to deter NATO support of…