New Tech, Old Traps: The Persistent Pitfalls in Military Innovation

Herb Lin joins the podcast and explains US reliance on technological overmatch through the first offset (nuclear deterrence against Soviet conventional superiority), second offset (high-tech conventional systems like precision-guided munitions and stealth), and an uncertain “third offset” often associated with AI amid Chinese adoption of similar approaches. He argues policymakers and institutions favor optimistic, transformational narratives due to persuasion and budget incentives, while large, complex programs are prone to bias because no one fully understands their details.