Author's Articles
New Tech, Old Traps: The Persistent Pitfalls in Military Innovation
Herb Lin joins the podcast and explains US reliance on technological overmatch through the first offset (nuclear deterrence against Soviet conventional superiority), second offset (high-tech conventional systems like precision-guided munitions and stealth),…
On Optimism About New Military Technologies
This article identifies psychological, cultural, and organizational factors that drive optimism about emerging military technologies. Psychological influences include bounded rationality, cognitive biases (like the planning fallacy and confirmation bias), and…
Introduction: Emerging Technologies and the Future of Strategic Stability
Emerging technologies developed since the end of the Cold War—and their proliferation to new actors—call into question the prospects for strategic stability in the twenty-first century. Strategic stability exists when rivals are mutually deterred and lack…
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons: A Commonsense Approach to Understanding Costs and Benefits
Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning (ML), has transformed computing, offering potential benefits in the nuclear enterprise, which encompasses weapons, delivery systems, platforms, and command and control infrastructure. While AI can…
Cyber Risk Across the U.S. Nuclear Enterprise
As the United States embarks on an effort to modernize many elements of its nuclear enterprise, it needs to consider how dependencies on modern information technologies could lead to cyber-induced failures of nuclear deterrence or to nuclear war. The Biden…