SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: My thought is that Belarus is not a lost case, that we really have chance to get rid of Russian dependence, to get Belarus out of Russia's claws.
RYAN VEST: Welcome to "Horns of a Dilemma," the podcast of the Texas National Security Review. I'm Dr. Ryan Vest, executive editor of TNSR, and I'm here with one of our affiliates and collaborators, Dr. Michael Kimmage, director of the Kennan Institute.
We are excited to be recording this episode at the 2026 Aspen Security Forum, and we're grateful for the Aspen Institute that has provided the opportunity to promote this discussion on national and international security challenges.
We're pleased to have joining us today Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, president-elect of Belarus, whose victory in the 2020 presidential election is recognized by the international community. She is the head of the United Transitional Cabinet and leader of the country's democratic movement.
President-elect Tsikhanouskaya, welcome to "Horns of a Dilemma."
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Thank you for the invitation.
RYAN VEST: For our listeners who may be less familiar with Belarus and what's going on in Eastern Europe, I was wondering if you could briefly explain how you became the leader of Belarus's democratic movement and the role you play today.
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: So, Belarus is the country that lives already 30 years under dictatorship. And of course, people were very unhappy about, you know, leadership of our country. But every time there was, like, a opposition movement, people were detained. We always had political prisoners.
Before 2020, I was ordinary woman, housewife. It was my husband who became blogger, and he was just going around the country asking people how do they live, what they think about, you know, the government issue, politics, whatever. And he became very popular, and people started to ask him, "maybe you will go for presidential campaign."
And he did, actually. But the next day after he declared his decision, he was jailed. And I'm, as his wife, having no political experience, just asked myself what I, a citizen of Belarus and a wife, can do for my husband. And I decided to step in instead of him.
So, of course, you know, election commission registered me. I think that they wanted to make fun. Who would vote for housewife, you know, woman? They called me cutlet maker, you know, kitchen woman, and so on and so forth. But regime underestimated the will of people for changes. And people supported me. Maybe they supported not me personally because, you know, I'm not politician, but they supported the idea of free and fair elections in Belarus. And our IT specialist for the first time for 30 years, they developed a system of alternative counting of the votes. And according to this counting, about—I got about 67% of the voters.
But as usual in a dictatorship, you know, regime didn't count the vote properly, and they forced me into exile. I remember this moment when I came to election commission just with the, like, paper that Belarusian people don't recognize these elections, and I was met by two KGB people who told, "from this place, you will go either to prison or to abroad."
And so, as I was bringing up two children, my husband was already abroad, and my internal mother won that fight. You know, it was really difficult decision, and I'm so grateful that Belarusians supported this idea that I leave the country but could continue our fight from abroad. So six years already passed since 2020, but I'm so proud of Belarusians that we are not giving up. We managed to build alternative institutions of power in exile.
Repressions continuing every day in Belarus. Political prisoners at the moment, the number of them is about 800 people, and detentions happening every day. But the spirit of changes lives in the people, and I'm glad that we managed to keep our unity, and I really believe that the changes will come to Belarus.
MICHAEL KIMMAGE: So, two years after the protests in the summer of 2020, there's the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I just wanted to ask about the ways that that invasion has changed Belarus and, you know, curious about the intervening years but also about the present moment where it seems like the war is getting closer in some respects to the people and to the government of Belarus.
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Of course, the war has changed a lot, dramatically. On the one hand, Belarus became country called Russia. It was such a hit on Belarusian people. But we managed to explain to the world that we have to distinguish Belarusian regime and Belarusian people because Lukashenko is the dictator.
He's servant to Russia. He's—he has provided our territory, our infrastructure, our railways to help the Russians start this invasion, to launch first missiles from our territory. But Belarusian people are against this war. We fully, as nation, on the side of Ukraine. And, thank God, you know, we managed to divide regime and Belarusian people. And the policy of our partners is to punish the regime that are war criminals. And Belarusian people who deserve, you know, support and solidarity.
And what is more important that we managed to explain it to Ukrainians. And recently, I visited Kyiv for the first time with the official visit. We met President Zelenskyy, and it's evident that Ukraine also realizes that Lukashenko will be ally to Putin forever. Because, on Putin's political, economic support, personal power, Lukashenko depends.
And Belarusian people who committed acts of sabotage on railways in 2022, so many military volunteers are fighting now shoulder to shoulder with Ukrainians. Our people, who had to flee repressions, I remember how we were welcoming and, you know, supporting Ukrainians who had to flee Ukraine because of the war.
So we really feel that as nations, you know, we stand together. But as the state, of course, our state is responsible for what has happened. And that's why Lukashenko is the same war criminal. He's not half guilty, and he has to be punished for the war crimes as well.
RYAN VEST: Looking at Belarus as a sovereign nation—but its political, economic and security and military integration with Russia have deepened considerably under the Lukashenko regime. Looking forward, how difficult would it be for a future democratic government to reverse that dependence and to separate from Russia more? Or is that something you are even interested in doing?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Oh, look, of course. You know, our aim is to return to European family of nations where we historically belong.
Just for people who don't know, we are percepted for many years as a appendix of Russia, a satellite of Russia. It was deliberate Lukashenko's policy to deepen this dependence on Russian Federation. Because Lukashenko, he's the most pro-Soviet Union or pro-Russian person in Belarus, and he always wanted to drag us back into the past, while Belarusian people want to go to the future. And our future has to be with our historic allies, with our historic neighbors, Europeans. Because mentally we are European nation—law-obedient, very hardworking, you know, respecting the values, but we just chose wrong president, you know, after collapse of Soviet Union.
And of course this subjugation, dependence on Russia is growing, especially after 2022 because Lukashenko is ready to sell our sovereignty in exchange of his, like, of his personal survival. And now what we see is that Russia is, like, influencing our military, media, economy, or education, like everything. The only sphere where Lukashenko might have some sovereignty is repressions. And of course it puts our country in huge dependence on Russia. But also it's important to realize that Belarusian people are against this.
Of course, now, thanks to, you know, repressions, you know, this brutality of the regime, people cannot say against this Russification, you know, loudly, but people don't want this. And of course our aim is to get rid of this dependence, and we ask our partners, our allies, also pronounce it very clearly that any subjugation of Belarus will not be tolerated, that Belarus is sovereign, independent country and they, you know—people have the right to choose their future by themselves.
Because Russia, you know, percepts not only Belarus, but maybe all post-Soviet Union countries—Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia—as, like, you know, naughty children, that they're not allowed to leave, like, their mother. But, look, it's a different world now, and Belarusian people want to choose their future by themselves.
And of course, we already now preparing future reforms and laws how to cut this dependence. It will be process, but at least, you know, at the first terms, we have to get rid of Russia—of military presence of Russia, of nuclear weapon, Oreshnik, that have been deployed in Belarus after '22.
And of course, we're dependent on fuel, on Russian fuel. We're also thinking about diversification of these aspects, you know, our economists working on this already. And I'm sure when our country will get rid of dictatorship, it will be comfortable for investments. You know, so many businesses will come to Belarus and will help us, you know, to get rid of this economic dependence on Russia because Belarus is in wonderful geographic position. It's like transit hub. You know, China is very interested in normal Belarus, you know, without any, like, obstacles.
So I think that we have wonderful, talented people and businessmen and, like, future governors who will know how to get rid of this dependence. But of course, we will need some, like, support from European nations. And we see that Europe is ready to support us as they, for example, support Moldova now or trying to help Ukraine because Europe is also interested in free, independent, and democratic Belarus that is not source of threat for them but a source of stability.
MICHAEL KIMMAGE: So we've seen in the last few months among people relatively close to the Kremlin—influencers, you know, sort of, some everyday Russians—that there's been a very small bit of criticism of the war, or at least messages about Russians wanting the war to be over.
I'm curious about your impressions of this, whether you think change is coming to Russia in this respect, a kind of loss of faith perhaps in President Putin or, at the very least, a loss of faith in the war, or if you think that this is perhaps superficial and that there's gonna be a long wait and a long period of time before Russia might change course?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Look, I really don't want to, you know, to judge the moods among the Russians because, actually, we Belarusians and Russians, we are—we have very different context. Because in Russia we see, or we saw the support of the war, you know, before at least, you know, these attacks from Ukraine, and it's became evident that Russia is much weaker than everybody expected and maybe Russians don't want, you know, to be beaten by Ukraine.
But for example, in Belarus people are absolutely pro-Ukrainian and anti-war. We didn't never had these imperialistic ambitions. And so as only people of Russia, you know, understand that they don't have right. It's—they're not empire. They don't have right, you know, to Russify, to subjugate other nations or to, like, influence the policy.
But it has to be in the minds of every Russian, you know? Because before, they felt that they are super-nation and all other smaller nations are like, they—like children, don't have rights, you know, to—even to speak. So it has to be changed. Mentality has to be changed. So how Russia, the Russian nation, will react on, like, new obstacles, you know, in Belarus, it's, like, you know, it's up to them. I can speak only on behalf of Belarusian people.
And very often I'm asked how we, democratic movement, is communicating with Russian opposition. And here I really have a lot to brag about because we—in our situation we have a legitimate representative of Belarusian nation. We have structures that we built. We kept our unity. We have a very tight connection with the people on the ground. We built, we formalized relationship with the democratic world. We have strategic dialogue with the USA, for example, the European Union, Canada, UK. So we build this coalition of friends. So we have different context with Russians.
Russians are more like, maybe, you know, splitted, you know. They have many groups of opposition. But what we ask Russian opposition is to say very clearly that if or when Russia changes, you know, they will not—they will stop the imperialistic ambitions. That's it. This is everything—all we need to know at the moment. How the Russia will develop in the future, it's, you know, up to Russians.
RYAN VEST: So you've talked a lot about a future that's more aligned with Europe for Belarus. But right now Belarus is part of the Eurasian Economic Union and very embedded with the Russian system.
What's it gonna take for Belarus to be able to make that shift? I know that, you know, there is corruption involved in the Lukashenko regime. How much is gonna have to change, and how hard is that gonna be for a future democratic government, to pivot to Europe?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: As I said before, Lukashenko has done a lot to undermine sovereignty and dependency of Belarus. All these coalitions that were, like, agreed, you know, without Belarusian people, they, of course, have to be revised, you know, in the future.
As I say to Belarusian people, that after changes, after free and fair elections, you know, it will not be easy times. You know, democracy needs much more efforts, you know, to sustain and to build than dictatorship because involvement of every person, you know, is needed. And we will have difficult economic times.
It will be new reality for us, but I want to believe that Belarusians will adjust to this very quickly because we are, like, we mentally, as I said, we are very pro-values and pro-European. And of course, all the laws that brought our country to dependence from Russia should be revised. But there is so much connection, you know, at the moment between Russia and Belarus, and step by step we'll have to get rid of them.
It also depends how Russia will look like, you know, at that moment. Who knows? You know, maybe it will be like normal country. I don't know. But it's in my obligation, my responsibility to do everything that Belarus will become free, you know, that courts will work. That country that will serve to the people, not to the regime or to Russia, for example. Of course, we'll have to, like, relaunch our relationship with European Union, Ukraine, of course, America. It will be like new stage of our history.
And you know, one more thing is that sometimes people say politicians think that, before changes in Russia, changes in Belarus are impossible. From my perspective, changes in Russia can start from the changes in Belarus. I remember how in 2020 our—after our uprising, the similar, you know, smaller uprisings in Russia started. So the people also might be inspired by successes of other nations.
And again, I have to say that, you know, Europe that is also interested in a prosperous, free Belarus, they will also help us to get rid of fuel dependence or, you know, some other economic dependencies. I'm sure that new European businesses will invest into Belarusian economy.
So we will manage. We went through such difficulties as a nation, I think it will be pleasant changes. Maybe difficult, but pleasant.
MICHAEL KIMMAGE: I want to ask about connections to Europe that you personally, and the Belarusian opposition movement, has been—have been able to build up since 2020, and also to ask about challenges.
You know, what challenges are there in creating connections either to the European Union or to the individual governments of Europe?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: I remember how, in 2020, when our uprising was, you know, on the peak, on the highest level, millions of people on the streets, we just needed Europe to be very firm on Belarus. But we realized that Europe doesn't—didn't have strategy.
So, Europe also didn't understand, you know, what was happening, because Europe always was like good cop, you know, towards Lukashenko, you know, playing with him just, you know, the way they released political hostages in exchange of lifting sanctions again, lift—put on sanctions, lifting them. So it's like, you know, it was—maybe it was comfortable, you know, for Europe to have Lukashenko that might be controlled through sanctions.
So—and thanks to this, you know, Lukashenko always played a role of seesaw between Russia and Europe. In winters, he made friendship with Putin because he needed cheap gas and oil. In summers, he was friend to Europe to get some investments, you know, or money. And we started to—after 2020, we started to rediscover Belarus to the world, that Belarus is not Lukashenko. Belarus—its people, with the intention, with the vision of the future.
And step by step, you know, having this legitimacy, building structures, we started to become part of European Union structures and institutions. It was very difficult to do because we were not state. We were not like government. We are government in exile. But, so, as after 2020, Lukashenko wasn't recognized as legitimate leader, we Belarusians, you know, have had president-elect, it was much easier, you know, to open new doors for us.
We, for example, signed a memorandum of cooperation with the European Parliament, or we have, as I said, strategic dialogue with the USA, Canada, UK, European Union. We, like, developing new forms of cooperation between state institutions and our government in exile. Many, many unconventional steps have been done.
After some successes, people didn't—like, couldn't understand how we managed to achieve this. And honestly speaking, now many other opposition movements who, you know, come to us asking, "how did you manage to do this or this or that? How did you manage, I don't know, to—how are you managing, you know, to—for six years already—to meet presidents, prime ministers of many countries and, you know, show this publicly?"
Because, you know, it's so important that, you know, we don't recognize Lukashenko. We are meeting Tsikhanouskaya, and this is about recognition, and it's so painful for the regime. So we launched—having no state, but with the help of our allies, you know, Lithuania—we managed to open investigation in International Criminal Court against Lukashenko.
Nobody believed in this, but we did this. So when you believe in what you are doing, you just knocking all the possible doors. You are looking for people and allies who can help you in this or that direction. And I think that we are blessed to have such wonderful nation that has not given up despite all the repressions, atrocities, you know, constant intimidation in Belarus, transnational repressions, and we're blessed to have so many friends all over the world.
Of course, time is passing, and it's less and less attention, and we as democratic forces have to work hard, you know, to keep Belarus high on agenda. And, here again, thanks to you, you know, I have possibility to tell the story of Belarus to broader amount of people because very often people even don't know where Belarus is and how Belarus is connected to Ukraine, to Europe and Russia.
But—and my aim is to explain that Belarus is not only about dictator and political hostages, it's already about security, and that is why it's so important being here in Aspen Security Forum talk to you.
RYAN VEST: So to take that a little farther a great deal of our audience is in Washington, D.C. So what is it that policymakers in Washington, D.C. should understand about Belarus's unique position in the security of Eastern Europe—in NATO's eastern flank and Ukraine—that might help them to create better policy?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: So first, my thought is that Belarus is not a lost case, that we really have chance to get rid of Russian dependence, to get Belarus out of Russia's claws, because Belarusian people want this.
And what is more important that we understand, like, strategic importance of Belarus from a security point of view. Because especially after the war has started and we understand that while Belarus—Belarusian regime is serving to Russia's interest, it will be launchpad for provocations, for possible attacks because now they deployed the Russian missiles, you know, they deployed nuclear weapon in Belarus.
The—in Belarus, a new infrastructure is being built that is not supposed to be in the country, if the country is not prepared for escalation, for example. Additional 1,000-kilometer border with European Union, with NATO alliance, and with Ukraine if Belarus is under Russian subjugation. So when we ask for help, for assistance, for solidarity, we ask, don't look on supporting Belarusians as a charity. It's your investment into your own NATO security, you know, to revise attitude, you know, to Belarus.
And I'm so glad that, you know, for many years, I suppose it's since 1994, there is understanding of the situation in Belarus in Washington and many your presidents, you know, put much attention to Belarusian topic. And always—when I called Europe good cop, USA always was bad cop. Hard sanctions, you know, just you—the USA really, like, was taking care about democratization of Belarus. In most cases failed because Lukashenko is still there, but nevertheless, we felt this solidarity and, you know, many senators and State Department was always on the side of Belarusian people.
When President Trump came to power, we understand, you know, this more transactional approach, but we're so grateful that President Trump appointed a special envoy, John Coale, on releasing political prisoners on this humanitarian track. And thanks to this diplomatic efforts, already 500 political people have been released in just—
RYAN VEST: Including your husband, right?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Including my husband, who spent five years in jail. And this track is continuing.
What we are asking our American partners is to not mix release of political prisoners and recognition or normalization of the situation in Belarus. Because, while some people are released, twice more are detained. So now it looks like revolving doors. So we have to put pressure on the regime until full stop of repressions, until irreversible changes. Because Lukashenko can get, like, endless amount of people to sell them for the lifting of sanctions.
So, and, of course, regarding security, you know, we understand that, the war in Ukraine is going on, and the fate of Belarus and Ukraine intertwined. And very often it seems to me that Belarus is percepted as, like, secondary issue. At first, we have to deal with Ukraine and maybe, you know, we'll return to Belarusian topic.
No, we have to, like, combine Belarusian and Ukrainian problems, you know, into one, because if we get this, you know, peace agreements, if we solve, you know, this Ukrainian issue but Belarus will be under Russia, it's only the matter of time, when these new attacks will take place. So that's why working on Ukraine, our powerful friends have to demand withdrawal of Russian troops from our territory, deployment of Oreshnik, you know, nuclear weapon.
We just—we don't have to postpone Belarus for later because it might be too late.
MICHAEL KIMMAGE: So my question, and I think it will be our last, is also about the United States and just how you navigate this complicated country, Republicans, Democrats, Congress, you know, the White House.
It's not always easy, I think, to understand, you know, what exactly the American audience is. So how do you tell your story to this country? How do you navigate what is, I think, an important audience for you and for your movement?
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: So first of all, I'm really glad that Belarusian topic is a topic that unites—unites people, unite parties, unite countries.
For example, among our friends, like Europeans and Americans, I feel like total consensus about Belarus because everything is so black and white. You know, punish the regime, support the people. And we are not asking the world and Americans to fight instead of us, you know. Just help us to win our country back. We take full responsibility for the changes, but no one war and no one fight cannot be won if you are alone. We just need some support, some solidarity, some consistency in your policy. So, uh, that's why, you know, of course, it's difficult. It's a wonderful, you know, powerful country, and sometimes we think that America could do more than it is doing.
And—but it's always like you're expecting something more from powerful people, countries, you know, parties, whatever. So we ask the USA and government and people not to forget about Belarus, but what is more important in our case is not to forget about Ukraine. Because Ukraine—on the victory of Ukraine depends not only Ukrainian well-being or the future, but the future of many, many countries around. And victory of Ukraine will mean chance for us, window of opportunity for us Belarusians.
So thank you for supporting Ukraine. Hopefully, you will put all your efforts to help Ukrainians to win this war.
RYAN VEST: Thank you.
Thanks for joining us on "Horns of a Dilemma" from the Texas National Security Review.
Our guest today has been Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, president-elect of Belarus. Ms. Tsikhanouskaya, thank you very much for joining us today.
SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA: Thank you, gentlemen.
RYAN VEST: If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to subscribe and leave a review wherever you listen. We love hearing from you. You can find more of our work at TNSR.org.
Today's episode was produced by TNSR digital and technical manager, Jordan Morning, and made possible by the University of Texas System and the Aspen Institute. This is Ryan Vest and Michael Kimmage. Thanks for listening.
