Jeffrey Friedman
Author's Articles
The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials
The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials
This article analyzes more than 60,000 assessments of uncertainty made by national security officials from more than forty NATO allies and partners. The findings show that national security officials are overwhelmingly overconfident and that their judgments…