Strategy, Policy & Diplomacy
Hard Then, Harder Now: CoCom’s Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China
Will the US-led technology control regime against China have a meaningful impact on the emerging great power competition? Supporters praise the effort’s targeted approach and optimistically see the case as a prime example of weaponized interdependence. But…
The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials
This article analyzes more than 60,000 assessments of uncertainty made by national security officials from more than forty NATO allies and partners. The findings show that national security officials are overwhelmingly overconfident and that their judgments…
Legal Deterrence by Denial: Strategic Initiative and International Law in the Gray Zone
International security competition in the twenty-first century is likely to remain largely within the “gray zone”—a category of aggressive activities that threaten core aspects of statehood while avoiding the threshold of armed force that has…
So What? Reassessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan
China and the United States are locked in an intensifying security competition, much of it revolving around—but increasingly transcending—Taiwan's continued autonomy. The operational value of a Chinese-controlled Taiwan has been cited as one reason for the…
Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent
For decades the North Korean military has fallen ever further behind its South Korean and US rivals. Unable to compete symmetrically on the battlefield, Pyongyang has enhanced its military’s ability to coerce the South. In addition to its nuclear program,…
Best Practices in Grand Strategy Design
Policymakers often view grand strategy as an academic indulgence, with scholars enjoying the freedom to envision sweeping plans, while they themselves must face more immediate concerns. Although this skepticism is understandable, it is misplaced. This article…
Negotiating Primacy: Strategic Stability, Superpower Arms Control, and the End of the Cold War
The United States successfully used the concept of strategic stability to tip the nuclear balance against the Soviet Union during the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) of the 1980s and early 1990s. Both superpowers sought to employ strategic stability to…
How World War II Bureaucratic Sabotage Endures in the Defense Department, and How to Fight Back
In an age where power hangs on technological advantage, America's greatest saboteur may be itself. A World War II sabotage manual from the predecessor to the CIA reveals how bureaucracy drains the Defense Department of purpose and delays progress. But there is…
Public Service and Counter-Terrorism: A Conversation with Christine Abizaid
TNSR talks with Hon. Christine Abizaid, who recently served as the director of the National Counter-Terrorism Center. In this interview, Abizaid talks about her career in public service and the private sector, the craft of intelligence analysis, and current…
Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending in August 2021, created favorable conditions for Russia to reassert itself as a regional hegemon in broader Central Asia. Historically, as great powers retrench from a territory, the resulting void can be filled…
Access Denied? Non-Aligned State Decisions to Grant Access During War
Access decisions play a crucial role in war, with belligerent states employing various methods to gain access into neutral states. Yet, the decision-making process of potential host nations has largely been unexplored for modern, large-scale conflicts. This…
Stuck Onshore: Why the United States Failed to Retrench from Europe during the Early Cold War
A growing number of scholars and policymakers are showing interest in a grand strategy that calls on the United States to retrench from key global regions while devolving the burden of checking the expansion of hegemonic aspirants to local allies. I highlight…