Horns of a dilemma

Spring 2026

Hypersonic Weapons | Military Operations | Military Strategy | Podcast | Technology | Warfare Europe | Russia & FSU

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Beyond the Hype: The Reality of Precision-Strike Weapons in Ukraine

Europe | Russia & FSU Hypersonic Weapons | Military Operations | Military Strategy | Podcast | Technology | Warfare April 29, 2026

Cameron L. Tracy, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Ryan Vest

Cameron Tracy joins to discuss his TNSR article on “technological surprise” and “normalization through use” in the Russo-Ukrainian war. He explains how forecasting about warfare often overweights extreme scenarios and is reinforced by professional and organizational incentives, producing hype with little accountability. We discuss drones, Russia’s failure to gain air superiority, and four case studies: hypersonic-associated missiles (Kinzhal, Tsirkon) intercepted by Patriot systems, the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile’s quick normalization after alarmist reactions, and Russia’s effective UMPK glide bomb kits.

The Roundtable essay discussed is “Technological Surprise and Normalization Through Use: The Tactical and Discursive Effects of New Precision-Strike Weapons in the Russo-Ukrainian War.”

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Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest

Producer: Jordan Morning

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