Great Power Competition
US Military Primacy and Alliance Resilience
In 1956, the Suez Crisis revealed the limits of British power. Could a similar event hollow out the US alliance system today? Bence Nemeth applies his "five factor theory of defense cooperation" to answer this critical question.
Conventional Options Theory in the New Nuclear Era
Tyler Bowen from the US Naval War College joins us to discuss the logic of conventional coercion in nuclear crises. As the US faces nuclear-armed adversaries like Russia and China, understanding how to "thread the needle" between defense and escalation is…
A New World Order? Careful What You Wish For
This paper examines the persistent attractions of the idea of a world order, and whether one may be said to exist today. It argues that we are now in a world adrift or, at best, between orders. It suggests that this may mark a return to the historical norm and…
How a US “Suez Moment” Could Hollow the US Alliance System
This article contends that while the United States still fields potent military capabilities, the narrowing military balance with China means that a future Indo-Pacific clash in which Beijing gains a regional edge is no longer implausible. Using the 1956…
Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending in August 2021, created favorable conditions for Russia to reassert itself as a regional hegemon in broader Central Asia. Historically, as great powers retrench from a territory, the resulting void can be filled…
Escalation Management in Ukraine: “Learning by Doing” in Response to the “Threat that Leaves Something to Chance”
The article analyses a process of escalation management over time between nuclear states under conditions of radical uncertainty. After Russia invaded Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin manipulated uncertainty to manage escalation and to deter NATO support of…
Paying the Defense Bill: Financing American and Chinese Geostrategic Competition
In the face of what could be a decades-long competition, the United States and China must consider how they will finance defense spending. Leaders in both states are constrained by an intertemporal dilemma: pay the high political cost of raising taxes today,…
China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field
Liza Tobin argues that the time has come for the United States and its allies to abandon the notion that competing on a level playing field with China’s state-led economy is possible and confront the reality of what she calls the country’s “brute force…
A Crisis of Diverging Perspectives: U.S.-Russian Relations and the Security Dilemma
Aspects of the relationship between Russia and the United States can be conceptualized as a security dilemma. Each side perceives a serious threat from the other and takes countermeasures that further provoke insecurity for the adversary. Bilateral ties have…
Wormhole Escalation in the New Nuclear Age
Increasingly capable and intrusive digital information technologies, advanced dual-use military capabilities, and diffused global power structures will reshape future crises and conflicts between nuclear-armed adversaries and challenge traditional ways of…
One War Is Not Enough: Strategy and Force Planning for Great-Power Competition
What are the implications of the Department of Defense's adoption of a one-war standard that is focused on defeating a great-power rival? Hal Brands and Evan Braden Montgomery discuss the gap between America's global commitments and the military challenges it…
After the Responsible Stakeholder, What? Debating America’s China Strategy
Now that the responsible stakeholder approach to China is essentially defunct, how should America respond? There are four options — accommodation, collective balancing, comprehensive pressure, and regime change.