Intelligence, Law & Security Studies
Embracing (Not Bridging) the Gap: Integrating Intelligence Analysis, Social Science, and History
Intelligence analysts, social scientists, and historians produce authoritative insights that often conflict, reflecting deep epistemological differences among these professions. The predominant approach to bridging the scholar-practitioner gap emphasizes…
The Principle of Distinction in the Autonomous Age
Are concerns about autonomous weapons overblown? In our latest episode, Nathan Wood argues that we must move past catch-all terms and focus on the distinct legal and ethical challenges of specific systems.
Bombs, Bots, and the Principle of Distinction: The Law of Armed Conflict and Contemporary Warfare
Critics of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) argue that these weapons cannot reliably distinguish between legitimate targets and those protected from attack. As a result, the use of AWS seems to violate the principle of distinction under international…
The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials
This article analyzes more than 60,000 assessments of uncertainty made by national security officials from more than forty NATO allies and partners. The findings show that national security officials are overwhelmingly overconfident and that their judgments…
Legal Deterrence by Denial: Strategic Initiative and International Law in the Gray Zone
International security competition in the twenty-first century is likely to remain largely within the “gray zone”—a category of aggressive activities that threaten core aspects of statehood while avoiding the threshold of armed force that has…
Disease Outbreak and National Security: Drawing Lessons from the COVID-19 Crisis to Improve Emergency Response
In response to the COVID-19 crisis, Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden have invoked statutory authorities to obtain medical equipment and stem the spread of the virus. Their actions provide an opportunity to reflect on how the current disaster response…
Preparing the Cyber Battlefield: Assessing a Novel Escalation Risk in a Sino-American Crisis
Do cyber capabilities create novel risks of a future political crisis between the United States and China escalating into a conflict? This article outlines one potential pathway for interstate crises to escalate: the use of force in response to adversary…
Taming the Lawless Void: Tracking the Evolution of International Law Rules for Cyberspace
The myth that cyberspace is a legal Wild West has been roundly rejected by states and scholars. As cyberspace norms evolve, states will advocate interpretations of existing international law rules that advance their national interests. In this regard, states…
Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA’s Office of National Estimates
Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, is a legend at the CIA, revered for professionalizing U.S. intelligence analysis. His analytic doctrine, steeped as it was in a commitment to reason and method,…