The World Is More Uncertain than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials
The World Is More Uncertain than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials
This article analyzes more than 60,000 assessments of uncertainty made by national security officials from more than forty NATO allies and partners. The findings show that national security officials are overwhelmingly overconfident and that their judgments…
What Do We Really Know?
What Do We Really Know?
We are more confident about our world than we should be.
Cultural Change in Military Organizations: Hackers and Warriors in the US Army
Cultural Change in Military Organizations: Hackers and Warriors in the US Army
Why did the US Army decide to create a new basic branch for cyberspace? This decision is puzzling because it broke with long-standing patterns. We argue that it reflects an attempt at cultural change within the military. The establishment of a new branch for…
Legal Deterrence by Denial: Strategic Initiative and International Law in the Gray Zone
Legal Deterrence by Denial: Strategic Initiative and International Law in the Gray Zone
International security competition in the twenty-first century is likely to remain largely within the “gray zone”—a category of aggressive activities that threaten core aspects of statehood while avoiding the threshold of armed force that has…
So What? Reassessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan
So What? Reassessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan
China and the United States are locked in an intensifying security competition, much of it revolving around—but increasingly transcending—Taiwan's continued autonomy. The operational value of a Chinese-controlled Taiwan has been cited as one reason for the…
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons: A Commonsense Approach to Understanding Costs and Benefits
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons: A Commonsense Approach to Understanding Costs and Benefits
Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning (ML), has transformed computing, offering potential benefits in the nuclear enterprise, which encompasses weapons, delivery systems, platforms, and command and control infrastructure. While AI can…
Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent
Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent
For decades the North Korean military has fallen ever further behind its South Korean and US rivals. Unable to compete symmetrically on the battlefield, Pyongyang has enhanced its military’s ability to coerce the South. In addition to its nuclear program,…
Latest Roundtables
Latest Roundtables
Roundtables are where we get to hear from multiple experts on either a subject matter or a recently published book. These collections of essays allow for detailed debates and discussions from a variety of viewpoints so that we can deeply explore a given topic or book.
Book Review Roundtable: Claire Vergerio’s “War, States, and International Order”
In this roundtable review of “War, States, and International Order: Alberico Gentili and the Foundational Myth of the Laws of War,” the contributors engage with Vergerio’s analysis of canon-making by suggesting ways to broaden its historical scope and highlighting what limits interdisciplinary dialogue.
Book Review Roundtable: The Soviet Search for Recognition as a Superpower
In this roundtable review, Mark Pomar, Kathryn Stoner, Carol Saivetz, Natasha Kuhrt, and Onur İşçi offer their thoughts on Sergey Radchenko’s new book, “To Run the World: The Kremlin’s Cold War Bid for Global Power.” These contributors offer a diverse range of perspectives on Soviet foreign policy — and implications for Russian policy today. Plus, Radchenko offers a response.
Book Review Roundtable: Russian Ways of Thinking About Deterrence
In this roundtable review, Michael Kofman, Dara Massicot, Cynthia Roberts, and Michael Petersen discuss Dima Adamsky’s new book, “The Russian Way of Deterrence: Strategic Culture, Coercion, and War.”