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Beyond the Hype: The Reality of Precision-Strike Weapons in Ukraine
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Cameron Tracy joins to discuss his TNSR article on “technological surprise” and “normalization through use” in the Russo-Ukrainian war. He explains how forecasting about warfare often overweights extreme scenarios and is reinforced by professional and…
Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI
Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI
horns of a dilemma
Rose McDermott explains how common judgment biases can undermine nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, especially under time pressure and with emerging technologies like AI, using Kahneman’s Type 1 (fast, intuitive) and Type 2 (slow, analytic) thinking…
Understanding Schelling’s Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin
Understanding Schelling’s Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin
horns of a dilemma
Francis J. Gavin explains why Thomas Schelling remains foundational to nuclear strategy despite being an economist, and argues that “strategic stability” is often invoked without clear definition. He highlights tensions between mutual vulnerability and US…