Asia
US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?
As the Trump administration recalibrates America’s global priorities, containing Pyongyang should be at the top of its agenda. Despite the progress of North Korea's illicit weapons programs, the United States should still pursue its longstanding goal of…
Hard Then, Harder Now: CoCom’s Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China
Will the US-led technology control regime against China have a meaningful impact on the emerging great power competition? Supporters praise the effort’s targeted approach and optimistically see the case as a prime example of weaponized interdependence. But…
So What? Reassessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan
China and the United States are locked in an intensifying security competition, much of it revolving around—but increasingly transcending—Taiwan's continued autonomy. The operational value of a Chinese-controlled Taiwan has been cited as one reason for the…
Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent
For decades the North Korean military has fallen ever further behind its South Korean and US rivals. Unable to compete symmetrically on the battlefield, Pyongyang has enhanced its military’s ability to coerce the South. In addition to its nuclear program,…
The Main Drivers of Soviet Foreign Policy Towards India, 1955–1991
India is a case study for how the Soviet Union tried to use the Third World and decolonization to advance its geostrategic position in the Cold War world. From Nikita Khrushchev’s celebrated visit to India in 1955 until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in…
Davy Crockett and the Boy Scouts: The Korean War and Mismanaging Protracted Conflict
The specter of protracted large-scale ground combat has grown more real in the wake of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. As the United States and its partners debate the best way to prepare for such a conflict, it would be wise to review the experience of the…
Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending in August 2021, created favorable conditions for Russia to reassert itself as a regional hegemon in broader Central Asia. Historically, as great powers retrench from a territory, the resulting void can be filled…
Just Do It: Explaining the Characteristics and Rationale of Chinese Economic Sanctions
While most economic sanctions are explicitly announced, Chinese economic sanctions tend to be vague — not explicitly announced. China rarely threatens sanctions — instead, it directly executes them. What explains these vague and executed Chinese sanctions?…
Estimating China’s Defense Spending: How to Get It Wrong (and Right)
China’s defense spending is opaque, and China spends more on defense than its official 2024 defense budget of 1.67 trillion yuan ($232 billion) indicates. Some analysts claim China’s defense spending is equivalent to $700 billion, approaching the level of…
Book Review Roundtable: The Other Great Game in Asia
At this time of growing concerns about tensions in East Asia and great-power competition, TNSR brought together four experts to review "The Other Great Game: The Opening of Korea and the Birth of Modern East Asia" by Sheila Miyoshi Jager. Jaehan Park, Paul…
Alliance Commitment in an Era of Partisan Polarization: A Survey Experiment of U.S. Voters
There is rising apprehension that U.S. partisan polarization is making it harder for the United States to keep its international commitments. This could have profound implications for one of the most critical elements of U.S. foreign policy: its commitment to…
Chinese Politics since Hu Jintao and the Origin of Xi Jinping’s Strongman Rule: A New Hypothesis
What is the origin of Xi Jinping’s strongman rule? A “victorious Xi” thesis argues that Xi simply won his fight to gain power. But this raises the question of where Xi found the political support to do so. A “collective support” thesis suggests that…