Asia
So What? Reassessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan
China and the United States are locked in an intensifying security competition, much of it revolving around—but increasingly transcending—Taiwan's continued autonomy. The operational value of a Chinese-controlled Taiwan has been cited as one reason for the…
Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent
For decades the North Korean military has fallen ever further behind its South Korean and US rivals. Unable to compete symmetrically on the battlefield, Pyongyang has enhanced its military’s ability to coerce the South. In addition to its nuclear program,…
The Main Drivers of Soviet Foreign Policy Towards India, 1955–1991
India is a case study for how the Soviet Union tried to use the Third World and decolonization to advance its geostrategic position in the Cold War world. From Nikita Khrushchev’s celebrated visit to India in 1955 until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in…
Filling the Void Left by Great-Power Retrenchment: Russia, Central Asia, and the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending in August 2021, created favorable conditions for Russia to reassert itself as a regional hegemon in broader Central Asia. Historically, as great powers retrench from a territory, the resulting void can be filled…
Just Do It: Explaining the Characteristics and Rationale of Chinese Economic Sanctions
While most economic sanctions are explicitly announced, Chinese economic sanctions tend to be vague — not explicitly announced. China rarely threatens sanctions — instead, it directly executes them. What explains these vague and executed Chinese sanctions?…
Estimating China’s Defense Spending: How to Get It Wrong (and Right)
China’s defense spending is opaque, and China spends more on defense than its official 2024 defense budget of 1.67 trillion yuan ($232 billion) indicates. Some analysts claim China’s defense spending is equivalent to $700 billion, approaching the level of…
Book Review Roundtable: The Other Great Game in Asia
At this time of growing concerns about tensions in East Asia and great-power competition, TNSR brought together four experts to review "The Other Great Game: The Opening of Korea and the Birth of Modern East Asia" by Sheila Miyoshi Jager. Jaehan Park, Paul…
Alliance Commitment in an Era of Partisan Polarization: A Survey Experiment of U.S. Voters
There is rising apprehension that U.S. partisan polarization is making it harder for the United States to keep its international commitments. This could have profound implications for one of the most critical elements of U.S. foreign policy: its commitment to…
Chinese Politics since Hu Jintao and the Origin of Xi Jinping’s Strongman Rule: A New Hypothesis
What is the origin of Xi Jinping’s strongman rule? A “victorious Xi” thesis argues that Xi simply won his fight to gain power. But this raises the question of where Xi found the political support to do so. A “collective support” thesis suggests that…
Book Review Roundtable: After Saigon’s Fall
The impacts of the war in Vietnam did not end when Saigon fell. Our contributors review Amanda C. Demmer's "After Saigon’s Fall: Refugees and US-Vietnamese Relations, 1975-2000" and consider remembrance, policymaking, and humanitarianism in U.S.-Vietnamese…
China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field
Liza Tobin argues that the time has come for the United States and its allies to abandon the notion that competing on a level playing field with China’s state-led economy is possible and confront the reality of what she calls the country’s “brute force…
More Significance than Value: Explaining Developments in the Sino-Japanese Contest Over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are presently the focus of a dangerous contest between the People’s Republic of China and Japan, one that even now has the potential to spark a military conflict that could draw in the United States. How has this come about?…