strategist
The Growing Rivalry Between America and China and the Future of Globalization
In this article, Aaron Friedberg considers the ways in which the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China may influence, and be influenced by, the evolving structure of the international economy. After reviewing the evolution of the…
A Large Number of Small Things: A Porcupine Strategy for Taiwan
As China’s rhetoric about “reunification” with Taiwan and the military’s gray-zone activities intensify, Taiwan should adopt a strategy that includes a large number of small things in order to leverage Taiwan’s geographic and technological…
Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Dilemma of a Conflicted Civil Servant
In December 2019, Alexandra Hall Hall resigned from her post as Brexit counselor at the British Embassy in Washington, DC. In this article, she writes about how she came to that decision and situates it in a broader discussion of principled resignation, giving…
The Standstill Conundrum: The Advent of Second-Strike Vulnerability and Options to Address It
Emerging and disruptive technologies spell an uncertain future for second-strike retaliatory forces. New sensors and big data analysis may render mobile missiles and submarines vulnerable to detection. I call this development the “standstill conundrum”:…
Nuclear Operations and Counter-Homeland Conventional Warfare: Navigating Between Nuclear Restraint and Escalation Risk
Bruce Sugden explores the dynamics that could lead the nuclear great powers to conduct counter-homeland conventional strikes, risking nuclear escalation. He explores how competitors view one another's conventional-nuclear firebreaks and their nuclear…
Debunking the AI Arms Race Theory
There is no AI arms race. However, military competition in AI does still pose certain risks. These include losing human control and the acceleration of warfare, as well as the risk that perceptions of an arms race will cause competitors to cut corners on…
Cyber Risk Across the U.S. Nuclear Enterprise
As the United States embarks on an effort to modernize many elements of its nuclear enterprise, it needs to consider how dependencies on modern information technologies could lead to cyber-induced failures of nuclear deterrence or to nuclear war. The Biden…
U.S. National Security Strategy: Lessons Learned
The Biden administration, as well as future administrations, should look to the national security strategy planning efforts of previous administrations for lessons on how to craft a strategy that establishes a competitive approach to America’s rivals that is…
America’s Alliances After Trump: Lessons from the Summer of ’69
Richard Nixon's 1969 Guam doctrine led America's allies in Asia to pursue a variety of strategies based on perceptions of America's reliability. If the Biden administration wants to strengthen the country's alliances moving forward, and avoid repeating Nixon's…
A U.S. Media Strategy for the 2020s: Lessons from the Cold War
The incoming Biden administration has an opportunity to strengthen U.S. national security by revitalizing U.S. international broadcasting, both in terms of organizational structure and overall strategy. In order to do so, it should look to the Cold War history…
The U.S. Navy’s Loss of Command of the Seas to China and How to Regain It
In 2005, a U.S. Navy plan was forwarded to Congress: It entailed reducing force structure and transforming to a capabilities-based forward force posture. However, the Navy continued to pursue unattainable force levels and, today, has lost command of the seas…
Fixing Democracy: The Election Security Crisis and Solutions for Mending It
The 2000 presidential election debacle in Florida led to the widespread adoption of electronic voting machines in the United States. Yet these machines have proven to be more problematic than the punch card machines that precipitated Florida's crisis. Poorly…